First mHealth ERC anaphylaxis simulation results to be presented at World Allergy Association confer
Results of the first live-data simulation of the Emergency Response Community Effectiveness Modeler (ERCEM) will be presented at this year's World Allergy Association Scientific Conference (WISC). The results, to be presented by Social Intelligence Lab researcher Michael Khalemsky, are based on analysis of 14.366 EMS anaphylaxis events from the 2013 National EMS Information System (NEMSIS) database. Analysis shows that the average probability across all geographies that the ERC will be faster than EMS varies from about 3% for the worst-case scenario, to about 13% percent for the most likely scenario and up to 34% for the most optimistic scenario. There is a strong positive correlation between the population density and the expected probability that ERC will be faster than the EMS. Simulations show the ERC to be most effective in heavily populated metropolitan areas. For example, in areas with population density above 6,460 people per km2 (e.g. New York City, San Francisco etc.), the average probability that ERC will be faster is nearly 59%. The expected time savings vary from 3.72 minutes in metropolitan areas and up to 5.55 minutes in small towns and rural areas.